Navigating Vatican-Trump Climate Politics: Part 2

12:20 PM Sunday.

Greetings, Duffy. 

Here we are on the first day of liturgical year 2026: the first Sunday of Advent and the week of Hope. According to Pope Leo XIV, we have 25 years until 2050 to achieve net zero climate emissions globally, and there is still time to prevent 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. According to climate scientist James Hansen, more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is already inevitable, and net zero by 2050 alone is not enough to prevent the climate system from making a phase change to a hot house earth. Hansen believes we need to implement solar radiation management, i.e., geoengineering. According to President Trump, climate change is a hoax, and countries that buy into the "Green New Scam" are getting wrecked economically. Against this backdrop, what does it mean to have "hope" in the way that Saint Thomas of Aquinas defined it? This is the question I am asking myself as we embark on the first week of our retreat.

To be perfectly charitable, let us assume that all three men - Pope Leo, James Hansen, and President Trump - genuinely believe they are speaking the truth and recommending what is best to save humanity. In this sense, they may all be "right" in their intentions, even if only one of them can be "right" in scientific and practical terms.

Christian obedience, as I understand it, requires us to assume and respect the good intentions of all three men, even if we find ourselves compelled to express our disagreement in a firm but civil manner.

If the climate scientists are right, climate change is accelerating so much faster than the mainstream models predicted, and the risk of a collapse of ocean conveyor currents is so great, that we cannot wait out the rest of Trump's second term. Democrats may well seize on this opportunity to campaign for Trump's impeachment, calling him the most dangerous climate change con artist in world history as a key focus of their 2026 midterm strategy. I will find myself torn if the Democrats move in this direction. I think Trump's instincts are correct in some very important ways. I think he has good grounds to challenge the establishment pro-China groupthink regarding legal and moral accountability for historical emissions prior to 1990. But ultimately, I might very well have to support the Democrats if Trump won't move into the scientific mainstream, commit to net zero by 2050, and fund major research into our emergency geoengineering options by the middle of 2026.

I say this even as I believe that we need to use fossil fuels for as long as we possibly can, in the most essential sectors; scale up nuclear power; revolutionize the security and smartness of the grid; prioritize methane abatement; plant more trees; change our food system; and initiate draconian family planning dialogue, giving pro-life proponents of a world one-child policy a serious seat at the table. 

Did I mention we also need to keep all of this affordable?      

The Catholic Church may have a more important role in facilitating all of these measures than President Trump. At this point, I personally don't hear Pope Leo communicating the full gravity of the climate emergency to the Church or to the wider interfaith world. I don't think it would be fair to say that Pope Leo is greenwashing, but he is not exactly leading the charge for a vegan, pro-life, one-child, all-of-the-above geoengineering Hail Mary, either. In many ways, I wonder if the Church was not made for this moment in world history? What would the Messiah tell the Church to do, if we had him here with us in the flesh?

Let me close this note on Advent hope with a somber thought. What if we have reached a point in the course of world history when the transition to a hothouse Earth is already inevitable, and a catastrophic collapse of world civilization between 2030 and 2100 is very likely? Does this mean that our primary mission as followers of the Messiah is about saving souls for the afterlife, not educating people for a sustainable future in the world at hand? Is our hope in the Messiah only supposed to be for the afterlife, and not for the future of human civilization on Earth? Is "hospice work" for a terminally ill humanity the end state of our contemplative mystical journey in this lifetime?

Heavy questions, I know. I hate to publish them. I hate to burden you with them. But I think this is what the Creator wants me to bring to the table for this retreat. It goes far beyond whether I should call myself a Christian before and unless I am baptized, which is what I originally thought this retreat would be all about for me. Wow, was I mistaken.

"Duffy and I are in your hands, Heavenly Father. You know the inner struggles that we bring to you during this Advent and Christmas retreat. Show us your will for our lives as we ponder the mystery of the Incarnation. This week, in particular, show us what Messianic hope truly means. In the name of the Father, and the Son, and the Holy Spirit, Amen."

End 1:56 PM.