Operation Sindoor and the Indus Waters Treaty

On the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, I first note yesterday's remarks from President Trump in the context of UN Security Council closed consultations on the matter, as reported by WION (cf. 4 Big Powers Back India's Fight Against Terrorism at UNSC). Then I note today's comment from the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson:

China finds India’s military operation early this morning regrettable. We are concerned about the ongoing situation. India and Pakistan are and will always be each other’s neighbors. They’re both China’s neighbors as well. China opposes all forms of terrorism. We urge both sides to act in the larger interest of peace and stability, remain calm, exercise restraint and refrain from taking actions that may further complicate the situation.

Today's comment from the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman is also instructive:

We are deeply concerned about the aggravation of military confrontation between India and Pakistan following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam.

Russia firmly condemns all acts of terrorism, stands against any manifestations of terrorism, and highlights the importance of joining the efforts of the international community for effectively combating this evil.

We urge the countries involved to show restraint in order to prevent the further deterioration in the region. We hope that differences between New Delhi and Islamabad will be settled in a peaceful manner by political and diplomatic means, based on bilateral efforts and in accordance with the provisions of the Simla Agreement (1972) and the Lahore Declaration (1999).

According to this CBS news report, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called Wednesday's airstrikes an "act of war" and said "that his country would retaliate at the time of its choosing." I am not sure, however, that India's strikes actually are an act of war, and I am not sure what Pakistan can legitimately target on Indian soil in retaliation. India has framed its strike, Operation Sindoor, as a counterterrorism mission against non-state actors in response to the Pahalgam attack. India has not, as far as I know, officially called Pahalgam an act of war against India by the state of Pakistan. If Pakistan now strikes military targets in India, on the other hand, this would be an aggressive act of war by the state of Pakistan, and India would presumably identify it as such.

If Operation Sindoor was not an act of aggression and declaration of war against the state of Pakistan, it may nevertheless have been a serious miscalculation, from a Pakistani and Chinese point of view, both in terms of the targets selected and the decision to strike. In this case, Pakistan should seek to secure compensation from India at the International Court of Justice or through some other arbitration mechanism. The main priority right now for Pakistan is perhaps to get the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) reinstated. Pakistan can deplore Operation Sindoor and seek restoration of balance through reinstatement of the IWT (cf. The Indus Water Treaty: A Model of Cooperation Amidst Conflict). A military response by Pakistan is likely to make things worse for all parties.