Sinai 2030

It's important that Egypt, Israel and the US warm relations back up. Pressure on Egypt to open its southern border to Gazan refugees must be balanced with respect for Egypt's contrary interests and for global Muslim shock at what many perceive to be a blatant case of Palestinian genocide. I am not entirely up to speed on where South Africa's case against Israel now stands at the International Court of Justice and welcome a briefing on the topic, but apparent Israeli noncompliance with the Court's last order does not seem to be a Hamas negotiating issue. From what I can see of the first ICJ order of 26 January 2024, the ICJ called for the immediate and unconditional release of all the hostages held by Hamas in paragraph 85, but oddly enough, it did not vote on a provisional measure that the state of Palestine should do so. Why on earth not? Is this because Hamas is not part of the state of Palestine? Hamas holds a majority in the Palestine Legislative Council. Perhaps Palestine is not a state after all, and Hamas is not a governing branch and the de facto majority thereof? Or perhaps the Court had some other reason for avoiding the issuance of a direct hostage-release order to the state of Palestine and all of its subsidiary parties?

The Court also neglected to order Egypt to open its borders to those in Gaza who wanted to flee the Hamas-instigated war.

I am not an international legal expert, and I don't know whether the Court is limited to issuing provisional measures targeting only one or both of the parties in a contentious case. If that is the situation, neither Palestine (even as the most-harmed party in South Africa's genocide case) nor Egypt (even as a potential party to the genocide South Africa alleges) would be the appropriate subjects of orders, however rational and moral such orders from the Court might otherwise seem to be. (Cf. Article 41, paragraph 1 at Statute of the Court of Justice | INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE). 

Shifting the hostage negotiations focus from Qatari to Egyptian leadership is a wise course of action, not only for Egypt but also for Qatar, which should be ready to take more of a back seat as it appropriately distances itself from any kind of armed Hamas rule in post-war Gaza. The US and Israel probably need to settle into Cairo for give and take negotiation with Egypt and the Arab League on a realistic post-war Gaza reconstruction plan. 

This looks promising: New ceasefire proposal presented to Hamas in Cairo talks | JNS.org; Report: Hamas to propose new ceasefire framework including release of hostages in one phase, five-year truce | The Times of Israel.

Why not make it an integrated Sinai 2030 Plan that works for all sides? Then we are talking about the demilitarization, development, and security of Gaza and Sinai at the same time, consistent with warmer Egypt-Israel relations.

Image Source: Alternative Policy Solutions. See also Egypt builds new city to boost Sinai development and Rafah, Egypt | Wikipedia.